Why birthrates keep falling in Canada

Canada has enacted many pro-family policies, yet its fertility rate has plunged from 1.60 to 1.25 in eight years. What factors are driving this and how can Canada and the rest of us change course?

For much of the 20th century, fertility rates in Canada were higher than in the United States. But now the fertility rate in Canada is 23% lower than in USA, which itself is at an all-time low.

There are several cultural and housing factors behind Canada's ultra-low birthrates.

Secularization is a first cause of low birthrates in Canada. During the '40s-'60s baby boom, some 60% of Canadians attended weekly religious services. Now it is less than 10%.

Religious attendance is a big driver of fertility, according to a 2023 Canadian study by Lyman Stone.

Why does religion matter so much for birthrates?

Many reasons. For one, religious people rate themselves happier, which is closely linked to fertility. For another, faith groups offer real communities in a world where most social activity virtual.

Low marriage rates are a second cause of low birthrates in Canada. Canadians also marry later in life compared to most of the world.

Average age of first marriage

Though many claim that marriage no longer matters, the data shows it makes a big difference in the odds of having children. Liberals and conservatives alike feel far more confident to have children when they are married.

Also, late marriage leaves less time to have kids.

The immigration-driven housing crisis is a third cause of low birthrates in Canada.

Rates of immigration to Canada have far exceeded the supply of new homes, producing a housing shortage that has crushed home affordability for young Canadians.

Making matters worse for Canadian birthrates, Canada has been going crazy building the wrong kind of housing for families, high-rise apartments. As of this July, Toronto has 272 new high-rises under construction, far more than any US city.

What Canada really needs is more single family homes.

Political liberalism is a fourth cause of low Canadian birthrates. The Institute of Family Studies found that conservative counties in the US averaged between 0.6 and 0.7 children per woman more than liberal counties (even after controlling for race and density)!

Just how liberal is Canada? The CBC published an article suggesting that Canada would be well to the left of the most liberal US state. Given how much political beliefs impact birthrates, is it any wonder Canadian birthrates are so low?

Thus, even though Canada has many family-friendly policies and is rated by US News as a top country to raise children, Canadian birthrates are now among the lowest in the world.

Migration, often touted as an answer to low birthrates, is actually driving fertility even lower by making housing unaffordable. Meanwhile, because much of the migration to Canada is unskilled, it doesn't seem to be helping the economy as much as hoped. Economist Ruchir Sharma noted, “Canada’s GDP per capita has been falling 0.4 percent a year since 2020, the worst rate among 50 developed economies.”

We find four big factors causing low birthrates in Canada, secularization, a culture that doesn't emphasize marriage, an immigration-driven housing affordability crisis and political beliefs.

These powerful forces overwhelm fairly generous family policies. If religiosity increased, if marriage were emphasized in culture, if housing were improved though moderating immigration and by building more suburban houses, and if Canadian leaders were willing to talk about the crisis, Canada could see a strong revival in births.

Regarding the last point, Canadian pro-family policies would go a lot farther toward boosting fertility if they were accompanied by some useful rhetoric. Consider France, where politicians not only provide family-friendly policies but also explicitly talk up birthrates. (Remember how Macron called for 'Demographic rearmament'?) Family policy in France has a bigger impact on fertility because French politicians are not afraid to simply urge people to have more children.

Turning around crashing birthrates in Canada will be a heavy lift, but at least we know the biggest factors for Canada (and similarly situated countries) to work on.